Project Estimation and Black Swans (Part 1)
There has been a flurry of discussion about estimation on the net in the last few months. All this reminded me to post the results of some number-crunching experiments that I started to do back in November 2009, based on a thought experiment by James Bach. That work coincided with the writing of Swan Song, a Better Software column in which I discussed The Black Swan, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. … Read more